market intelligence for real probabilities

we compare polymarket with leading bookmakers — no tips, just math.

How it works

Every price is a mirror of fear, conviction, and bias. polyquant measures that distortion — the gap between perception and probability.

ingest

collect polymarket orderbooks alongside bookmaker odds snapshots. markets mirror collective sentiment — we capture both sides of that reflection.

normalize

convert all raw odds into fair implied probabilities by removing bookmaker margin (vig). this reveals the unbiased consensus. fair_pᵢ = (1 / oddsᵢ) / Σⱼ(1 / oddsⱼ)

compare

highlight edges — where polymarket deviates from the bookmaker consensus. that gap is the signal: emotion versus math.

Roadmap

alerts, profile analytics, and edge tooling for Polymarket — shipped step by step.

demo bot launch

internal prototype for live market parsing and Telegram interaction. validated the core data flow between Polymarket and Telegram.

edge leaderboard build

automated aggregation of sports markets and real-time ranking by mispricing vs tier-1 bookmakers.

profile alerts

follow whales or track your own account. get every new trade, limit fill, and position change via Telegram (24h auto-stop).

match alerts for every market

match alerts work on absolutely every Polymarket market — any event, any slug, any ID. full outcome tracking with a 3h auto-stop.

my profile analytics

full analytics for your Polymarket account: open value, PnL, open/closed positions, volume, biggest wins, and top holdings.

fulfil alerts

one-tap alerts for your linked profile. uses the profile saved in “My profile” and starts parsing its activity immediately.

my alerts hub

a single place to view and individually disable all your active profile and match alerts in the current chat.

public release

polyquant.io + Telegram bot: unified experience for edges, alerts, and profile analytics, open to the public.

FAQ

Quick answers to the questions we hear most about polyquant and the bookmaker comparisons.

what is an edge?
it’s the difference between polymarket’s implied probability and the bookmaker’s fair probability after removing the vig. positive edges show where sentiment misprices reality.
do you give advice?
no — polyquant doesn’t give tips or predictions. we surface probabilities, not opinions. you interpret the signal.
how fresh is the data?
the leaderboard refreshes automatically every 60 seconds. all edges are recalculated continuously using both data sources.
why compare polymarket and bookmakers?
bookmakers use structured models and margins; polymarket reflects sentiment and bias. comparing the two exposes where emotion bends probability.
is this about betting?
no — it’s about measuring distortion. understanding how collective belief diverges from mathematical expectation. information is the new liquidity.